Business area outlook for Q4 2022 as provided in the Q3 2022 presentation:
Bauxite & Alumina
- Alunorte production around nameplate capacity
- Higher raw material costs
- ~70% of primary production for Q4 priced at USD 2 257per mt.
Including pricing effects from LME strategic hedging program as per 30.09.2022
- ~44% of premiums affecting Q4 booked at USD ~811 per mt.
Q4 realized premium expected in the range of USD 550-600 per ton
- Lower sales volumes
- Higher result on power sales
- Lower variable costs and higher fixed costs
- Volatile trading and currency effects
- Summer maintenance at recyclers
- Continued softening of extrusion markets in Europe and North America
- Lower recycling volumes and premiums
- High market uncertainty
- Average NO2 spot price 1 370 NOK/MWh in October (01.10.2022 – 24.10.2022)
- Higher production compared to third quarter
- Volume and price uncertainty, with continuing price area differences
- The latest available price and currency sensitivities for earnings (as well as information on the price time lags for revenues and costs), are included in the Q3 Investor presentation.
Publicly available information regarding the market prices and currency developments in Q4
- The average LME-cash market rate in Q4-22 was USD/t 2 336 vs 2 356 in Q3-22.
Realized price in AM lags LME spot with 1-2 months.
- The average spot PAX alumina price in Q4-22 was USD/t 317 vs 338 in Q3-22.
Alumina prices in B&A are realized with approx. one month lag, in AM with 2-3 months lag.
- The average USD/NOK market rate in Q4-22 was 10.19 vs 9.99 in Q3-22.
- The average USD/BRL market rate in Q4-22 was 5.26 vs 5.25 in Q3-22.
- The Nordpool power price for NO2 (where Hydro has ~2/3 of the production) in Q4-22 was NOK/MWh 1 719 vs 3 519 in Q3-22.
- The Nordpool power price for NO5 (where Hydro has ~1/3 of the production) in Q4-22 was NOK/MWh 1 720 vs 2 883 in Q3-22.
- The Nordpool power price for NO3 in Q4-22 was NOK/MWh 941 vs 316 in Q3-22.