Business area outlook for Q2 2024 as provided in the Q1 2024 presentation:

Bauxite & Alumina

• Alunorte production around nameplate capacity
• Higher alumina price
• Lower raw material prices

Important takeaways from the Q1 2024 Earnings Call:

“For the second quarter, Alunorte is expected to be around name plate capacity. Higher realized alumina price will impact our results positively. We expect lower raw material costs of NOK 50-150 million, which is driven by the fuel switch effect and partly offset by higher fuel oil prices. Fixed and other costs are expected to be stable looking into second quarter.”

Aluminium Metal

• ~73% of primary production for Q2 2024 priced at USD 2 272 per mt.
• ~47% of premiums affecting Q2 2024 booked at USD ~ 393 per mt. Q2 realized premium expected in the range of USD 350 and 400 per mt.
• Higher raw material and fixed cost
• Higher sales volumes

Important takeaways from the Q1 2024 Earnings Call:

“Both the LME and the premiums have increased since Q1 and are expected to impact positively the revenue side in AM. For the second quarter, AM has booked 73% of primary production for Q2 2024 at 2272 USD/t including the effect of our strategic hedging program.

Furthermore, we have booked ~47% of premiums affecting Q2 2024 booked at 393 USD per mt and we expect realized premium in the range of 350 - 400 USD per ton. On the negative side we expect increased raw material costs, driven by alumina, and partly offset by carbon of between NOK 200 and 300 million.

In addition, inflationary driven fixed costs are expected to impact the quarter negatively by NOK 50 to 100 million. On the positive side we expect higher sales volumes. We continue to closely monitor the demand developments and we do not foresee any restarts of the curtailed primary volumes next quarter. We expect flat quarterly development on the CO2 compensation going ahead.”

Metal Markets

• Tight scrap markets
• Higher volumes
• Lower impact due to Cassopolis ramp up

Important takeaways from the Q1 2024 Earnings Call:

“The outlook for the next quarter continues to be challenging as we expect recycling margins continued to be squeezed on the lower scrap availability keeping margins low. We also expect the negative effects from the ramp up of Cassopolis to continue even though on a lower level.

At the moment the recycling margins are at all time low level, and we expect those to return to normalized levels over time. However, as mentioned, this is tied to the improvement in the B&C markets, which is not expected to come in the first half. For the next quarter we expect higher recycling volumes, however due to tighter scrap markets we expect higher proportion of clean metal to be used in the recyclers, partially offsetting the positive volume effects.

For our Commercial area, for the second quarter we expect positive contribution from sourcing and trading activities and positive hedging effects. Again, as always reminding of the inherent volatility of the trading and currency effects.”

Extrusions

• Continued strong margins
• Lower sales volumes
• Higher variable costs
• Continued soft extrusions markets

Important takeaways from the Q1 2024 Earnings Call:

“Looking into second quarter we should look towards the same quarter last year to capture the seasonal developments in extrusions. 

Compared to last year we expect continued strong margins in our extrusions business, and we also estimate a positive metal effect of around NOK 50 million. As mentioned earlier, we expect continued soft extrusions markets in both Europe and North America, resulting in lower sales volumes compared to last year. In addition, the remelt margins continues to be under pressure. Combined with higher costs, we expect the negatives to more than offset the positives in the second quarter when comparing to the same quarter last year.”

Energy 

• Lower production and net spot sales
• Lower prices and lower gain on area price differences
• Continued volume and price uncertainty

Important takeaways from the Q1 2024 Earnings Call:

“Looking into the next quarter, as always, we should be aware of the inherent price and volume uncertainty in Energy. Power prices in Southern Scandinavia are expected to decrease further into Q2. We currently perceive the risk of a strained power situation as a result of late snow melt in Norway this year, as low.

Furthermore, we expect lower price area differences result of NOK 50 to 100 million. Last quarter results were at NOK 148 million."

Additional information

• The latest available price and currency sensitivities for earnings (as well as information on the price time lags for revenues and costs), are included in the NHY Presentation Q1 2024.

Publicly available information regarding the market prices and currency developments in Q1

 

	Q1-24	Q4-23	QoQ	YoY
Average LME 3M market rate1)	2,241	2,226	1%	-8%
Average PAX fob Australia (USD/t) 2)	367	333	10%	2%
Energy prices3)
Nordic system NOK/MWh	667	675	-1%	-29%
NO5 NOK/MWh	728	801	-9%	-38%
NO2 NOK/MWh	689	818	-16%	-42%
NO3 NOK/MWh	570	535	7%	-7%
SE1 NOK/MWh	720	515	40%	23%
SE2 NOK/MWh	550	515	7%	-6%
NO2 vs NO3 NOK/MWh	119	283	-58%	-79%
Currencies4)
Average NOK/USD	10.51	10.85	-3%	3%
Average NOK/BRL	2.12	2.19	2%	13%
Average NOK/EUR	11.41	11.65	-2%	4%
Average BRL/USD	4.95	4.96	0%	-5%

1) Realized price in AM lags LME market rate with 1-2 months
2) Alumina prices in B&A are realized with approx. one month lag, in AM with 2-3 months lag
3) Source: Nordpool
4) Source: Norges Bank