Business area outlook for Q1 2022 as provided in the Q4 2021 presentation:
Bauxite & Alumina
- Alunorte production around nameplate capacity
- Higher raw material prices
Aluminium Metal
- ~61% of primary production for Q1 priced at USD 2 594 per mt 1)
- ~59% of premiums affecting Q4 booked at USD ~881 per mt 1)
- Q1 realized premium expected in the range of USD 675-725 per ton
- Higher raw material costs compared to Q4
- Higher CO2 compensation
- Albras expects to restart first pots in early Q2, resuming normal operations in Q4
Metal Markets
- Volatile trading and currency effects
- Stronger recycling results on high premiums
Extrusions
- Higher net added value
- Short term margin pressure amid increasing inflation
- Supply-chain volatility and labor shortage in North America
- Uncertainly due to Omicron and high and volatile energy prices
Energy
- Volume and price uncertainty, with continuing price area differences
- Normalizing hydrological balance in the Nordics
- 30-40% lower north-south area price exposure than in 2021
- Average NO2 spot price 1 325 NOK/MWh in February (01.1.2022 19.02.2022)
Additional information
- The latest available price and currency sensitivities for earnings (as well as information on the price time lags for revenues and costs), are included in the Q4 Investor presentation.
Publicly available information regarding the market prices and currency developments in Q1:
- The average LME-cash market rate in Q1 was 3255 USD vs USD 2756 in Q4. Realized price in PM lags LME spot with 1-2 months.
- The average spot PAX alumina price in Q1 was USD 408 vs USD 399 in Q4. Alumina prices in B&A are realized with ca one month lag, in PM with 2-3 months lag
- The average USD/NOK market rate in Q1 was 8.85 vs 8.72 in Q4
- The average USD/BRL market rate in Q1 was 5.25 vs 5.58 in Q4
- The Nordpool power price for NO2 (where Hydro has ~2/3 of the production) in Q1was NOK/MWh 1504 vs1272 NOK/MWh in Q4
- The Nordpool power price for NO5 (where Hydro has ~1/3 of the production) in Q1was NOK/MWh 1491 vs1266 NOK/MWh in Q4
- The Nordpool power price for NO3 in Q1was 207 NOK/MWh vs424 NOK/MWh in Q4
Updated: April 08, 2022