Business area outlook for Q1 2021 as provided in the Q4 2020 presentation:
Bauxite & Alumina
- Alunorte expected to produce around nameplate capacity
- Around NOK ~200 million related to crane repairs
Aluminium Metal
- ~65% of primary production for Q1 priced at USD ~1 980 per mt 8)
- ~59% of premiums booked at USD ~273 per mt 8)
- Q1 realized premium expected in the range of USD 225-275 per ton
- Higher fixed costs and higher power prices
Metal Markets
- Volatile trading and currency effects
Rolling
- Anti-dumping duties of around ~100 MNOK
- Continued market recovery, uncertainty remains
Note: Rolling will be reclassified as assets held for sale from Q1 2021 reporting
Extrusions
- Market recovery, uncertainty remains
- Continued focus on cost initiatives, some costs expected to return as market resumes
Energy
- Drier, colder weather in January nearly eliminating surpluses in hydrological balance
Additional information
The latest available price and currency sensitivities for earnings (as well as information on the price time lags for revenues and costs), are included in the Q4 Investor presentation.
Publicly available information regarding the market prices and currency developments in Q1,
- The average LME-cash market rate in Q1 (01.01.2021-15.03.2021) was 2,065 USD vs USD 1,915 in Q4. Realized price in AM lags LME spot with 1-2 months
- The average spot PAX alumina price in Q1 (01.01.2021-15.03.2021) was USD 302 vs USD 282 in Q4. Alumina prices in B&A are realized with ca one month lag, in PM with 2-3 months lag
- The average USD/NOK market rate in Q1 (01.01.2021-15.03.2021) was 8.51 vs 9.03 in Q4
- The average USD/BRL market rate in Q1 (01.01.2021-15.03.2021) was 5.44 vs 5.40 in Q4
- The Nordpool power price for NO2 (where Hydro has ~2/3 of the production) in Q1 was NOK/MWh 469 vs 136 NOK/MWh in Q4
- The Nordpool power price for NO5 (where Hydro has ~1/3 of the production) in Q1 was NOK/MWh 487 vs 132 NOK/MWh in Q4
- The Nordpool power price for NO3 in Q1 was 381 NOK/MWh vs 113 NOK/MWh in Q4
Updated: April 06, 2021