Quarterly guidance

Ahead of the quarterly results release, Hydro Investor Relations reminds analysts and investors about the relevant publicly available information and guidance for the next quarter

 

Business area outlook for Q3 2018 as provided in the Q2 2018 presentation:

      Bauxite & Alumina

    • Alunorte and Paragominas production 50% curtailed
    • Increased raw material costs

      Primary Metal

    • ~ 60% of primary production for Q3 priced at USD ~2 275 per mt
    • ~ 65% of premiums affecting Q2 booked at USD ~410 per mt
    • Q3 realized premium expected in the range of 350-400 USD/mt
    • Alumina costs realized with a 2-3 months lag
    • Albras curtailed 50%

    Metal Markets

    • Volatile trading and currency effects

    Rolled Products

    • Positive market conditions to continue into Q3
    • Neuss results driven by all-in metal and raw material price development

    Extruded solutions

    • Positive market conditions to continue into Q3

     Energy

    • Price and volume uncertainty

    Additional information

    • The latest available price and currency sensitivities for earnings (as well as information on the price time lags for revenues and costs), are included in the Q2 Investor presentation 
    • The majority of the commitments under the TAC/TC agreements signed in September 2018 (~300 MBRL) will be included as provisions in Q3 2018 EBIT for the Bauxite & Alumina division

     

  • Publicly available information regarding the market prices and currency developments in Q3 2018 (July-September):

    • The average LME-spot market rate in Q3 was USD 2 056 vs USD 2 259 in Q2
    • The average spot PAX alumina price in Q3 was USD 543 vs USD 519 in Q2
    • The average USD/NOK market rate in Q3 was 8.24 vs. 8.02 in Q2
    • The average USD/BRL market rate in Q3 was 3.96 vs. 3.61 in Q2
    • The Nordpool power price for NO2 (where Hydro has ~2/3 of the production) in Q3 was 475 NOK/MWh vs 369 NOK/MWh in Q2 
    • The Nordpool power price for NO5 (where Hydro has ~1/3 of the production) in Q3 was 474 NOK/MWh vs 370 NOK/MWh in Q2
    • The Nordpool power price for NO3 in Q3 was 487 NOK/MWh vs 376 NOK/MWh in Q2

     

 


Updated: February 8, 2018