Business area outlook for Q1 2023 as provided in the Q4 2022 presentation:
Bauxite & Alumina
- Alunorte production around nameplate capacity
- Higher alumina prices compared to Q4 2022
- Lower raw material cost
- Higher fixed costs
- ~75% of primary production for Q1 2023 priced at USD 2 239 per mt
- ~40% of premiums affecting Q1 2023 booked at USD ~643 per mt
o Q1 realized premium expected in the range of USD 475-525 per ton
- Lower result on power sales and higher indirect CO2 compensation
- Continued lower production volume from curtailments
- Lower fixed costs
- Volatile trading and currency effects
- Lower recycling margins
- Continued strong margins
- Continued market uncertainty, and softening extrusions markets
- Lower recycling volumes and premiums
- Improved Nordic hydrological balance, but remains below normal
- Lower expected NO2-NO3 spread compared Q4
- Increased loss on Aluminium Metal buy-back contract vs fourth quarter
- Volume and price uncertainty
- The latest available price and currency sensitivities for earnings (as well as information on the price time lags for revenues and costs), are included in the Q4 Investor presentation.
Publicly available information regarding the market prices and currency developments in Q1
- The average LME 3M market rate in Q1-23 was USD/t 2 439 vs 2 356 in Q4-22.
o Realized price in AM lags LME market rate with 1-2 months.
- The average spot PAX alumina price in Q1-23 was USD/t 360 vs 317 in Q4-22.
o Alumina prices in B&A are realized with approx. one month lag, in AM with 2-3 months lag.
- The average USD/NOK market rate in Q1-23 was 10.24 vs 10.19 in Q4-22.
- The average USD/BRL market rate in Q1-23 was 5.20 vs 5.26 in Q4-22.
- The Nordpool power price for NO2 (where Hydro has ~2/3 of the production) in Q1-23 was NOK/MWh 1 182 vs 1 719 in Q4-22.
- The Nordpool power price for NO5 (where Hydro has ~1/3 of the production) in Q1-23 was NOK/MWh 1 177 vs 1 720 in Q4-22.
- The Nordpool power price for NO3 in Q1-23 was NOK/MWh 612 vs 941 in Q4-22.
Updated: April 04, 2023