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Quarterly guiding

Ahead of the quarterly results release, we remind you of the relevant publicly available information and guidance for the next quarter.

Business area outlook for Q4 2021 as provided in the Q3 2021 presentation:

Bauxite & Alumina

  • Alunorte expected to produce around nameplate capacity
  • Increased alumina price
  • Seasonally higher fixed costs

Aluminium Metal

  • ~72% of primary production for Q4 priced at USD 2 646 per mt 
  • ~59% of premiums affecting Q4 booked at USD ~680 per mt 
    • Q4 realized premium expected in the range of USD 535-585 per ton
  • Higher raw material and fixed costs

Metal Markets

  • Volatile trading and currency effects
  • Rising sales premiums for recyclers

Extrusions

  • Seasonally lower sales
  • Supply chain volatility
  • Short term margin pressure amid increasing inflation
  • Gradual normalization of cost base post Covid

Energy

  • Volume and price uncertainty, weak hydrological balance
  • Average NO2 spot price 1 024 NOK/MWh in October

Additional information

  • The latest available price and currency sensitivities for earnings (as well as information on the price time lags for revenues and costs), are included in the Q3 Investor presentation.

Publicly available information regarding the market prices and currency developments in Q3:

  • The average LME-cash market rate in Q4 is 2761 USD vs USD 2648 in Q3. Realized price in PM lags LME spot with 1-2 months
  • The average spot PAX alumina price in Q4 is USD 399 vs USD 326 in Q3. Alumina prices in B&A are realized with ca one month lag, in PM with 2-3 months lag
  • The average USD/NOK market rate in Q4 is 8.72 vs 8.76 in Q3
  • The average USD/BRL market rate in Q4 is 5.58 vs 5.23 in Q3
  • The Nordpool power price for NO2 (where Hydro has ~2/3 of the production) in Q4 is NOK/MWh1272 vs 807 NOK/MWh in Q3 
  • The Nordpool power price for NO5 (where Hydro has ~1/3 of the production) in Q4 is NOK/MWh1266 vs 800 NOK/MWh in Q3
  • The Nordpool power price for NO3 in Q4 is 424 NOK/MWh vs 536 NOK/MWh in Q3

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