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Business area outlook for Q1 2024 as provided in the Q4 2023 presentation:

Bauxite & Alumina

  • Alunorte production around nameplate capacity
  • Higher alumina price
  • Stable raw materials development

Important takeaways from the Q4 2023 Earnings Call:

“For the first quarter, Alunorte is expected to be around name plate capacity. The increased Alumina price will have a positive impact on our results. We expect the raw materials development into the first quarter to be largely stable. The same applies for fixed and other costs.”

Aluminium Metal

  • ~67% of primary production for Q1 2024 priced at USD 2255 per mt.
  •  ~46% of premiums affecting Q1 2024 booked at USD
     ~373 per mt. Q1 realized premium   expected in the range of USD 275 - 325 per mt.
  • Lower raw material costs

Important takeaways from the Q4 2023 Earnings Call:

“While the LME has peaked slightly since Q4, we continue to see pressure on value-added premiums for the coming quarter. For the first quarter, AM has booked 67% of primary production for Q1 2024 at 2255 USD/t including the effect of our strategic hedging program. Furthermore, we have booked ~46% of premiums affecting Q1 2024 booked at USD ~373 per mt and we expected realized premium in the range of USD 275 - 325 per ton.

With respect to CO2 compensation, our guidance for 2024 remains the same as from the CMD. We expect a total CO2 compensation booking for 2024 of around NOK 3.2 billion which implies NOK 750-850 million per quarter. The cash inflow for those is as always expected in Q2 in the following year 2025. We also expect further reduction in raw material costs, driven by carbon, partly offset by alumina of around NOK 100 million. We continue to monitor the demand developments and we do

Metal Markets

  • Increased results from sourcing and trading activities
  • Positive currency effects
  • Continued margin pressure in the recyclers
  • Cassopolis ramp up

Important takeaways from the Q4 2023 Earnings Call:

“The outlook for the next quarter continues to be challenging as we expect recycling margins to continue to be squeezed on falling billet premiums and low scrap availability keeping margins low. We also negative effects from the ramp up of Cassopolis to continue. We expect recycling margins to improve towards normalized levels with time but expect this to be tied to the improvement in B&C markets, which is not expected to come in the first half.

Normally we see that stand alone remelters are marginal price setter for the EI premium. However, currently it is primary casthouses setting the price. With a 100 USD/MT spread above standard ingot, this is not a sustainable situation for standalone remelters, and average historical spread adjusting for higher energy prices and other inflation, is probably closer to 250 – 300 USD/mt.

But we don’t just wait for better margins, we continue to closely manage the metal margin, digging deeper into the scrap pile, utilizing dirtier scrap types and securing access to scrap as well as differentiating the product portfolio and market segments, driving the greener premium, to increase counter-cyclicality. All those measures have proven their effectiveness over time, and we see next quarter as no exception. 

For our Commercial area, we expect positive contribution from sourcing and trading activities for the next quarter, and a reversal of impairments from the fourth quarter, as we account for positive hedging effects.”


  • Continued strong margins
  • Lower sales volumes
  • Higher fixed and variable costs
  • Market uncertainty remains

Important takeaways from the Q4 2023 Earnings Call:

“Looking into first quarter we should look towards the same quarter last year to capture the seasonal developments in extrusions.  Compared to last year we expect continued strong margins. However, we expect the margin development YoY to be lower compared to what we have seen in the previous quarters YoY.

As we have touched upon, we expect continued market uncertainty and soft extrusions markets in both Europe and North America, resulting in lower sales volumes compared to last year. Also remelt margins continue to be under pressure. Combined with higher fixed and variable costs, we expect the negatives to more than offset the positives in the first quarter by quite a bit.”


  • Lower prices and lower gain on area price differences
  • Continued price and volume uncertainty

Important takeaways from the Q4 2023 Earnings Call:

“Looking into the next quarter, as always, we should be aware of the inherent price and volume uncertainty in Energy. Power prices in Southern Scandinavia are expected to decrease however, the below-normal snow reservoirs might limit the downside. Furthermore, we expect lower price area differences result of about NOK 50-150 million. Last quarter results were at NOK 308 million."

Additional information

  • The latest available price and currency sensitivities for earnings (as well as information on the price time lags for revenues and costs), are included in the NHY Presentation Q4 2023 

Publicly available information regarding the market prices and currency developments in Q1


  Q1-24 Q4-23 QoQ YoY
Average LME 3M market rate1)  2,241  2,226 1% -8%

Average PAX fob Australia (USD/t) 2)

367 333 10% 2%
Energy prices3)  
Nordic system NOK/MWh
NO3 NOK/MWh 570 535 7% -7%
SE1 NOK/MWh 720 515 40% 23%
SE2 NOK/MWh 550 515 7% -6%
NO2 vs NO3 NOK/MWh 119 283 -58% -79%
Average NOK/USD   10.51 10.85 -3% 3%
Average NOK/BRL  2.12 2.19 2% 13%
Average NOK/EUR 11.41 11.65 -2% 4%
Average BRL/USD 4.95 4.96 0% -5%

1) Realized price in AM lags LME market rate with 1-2 months
2) Alumina prices in B&A are realized with approx. one month lag, in AM with 2-3 months lag
3) Source: Nordpool
4) Source: Norges Bank

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