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Quarterly guiding

Ahead of the quarterly results release, we remind you of the relevant publicly available information and guidance for the next quarter.

Business area outlook for Q4 2020 as provided in the Q3 2020 presentation:

Bauxite & Alumina

• Production expected to be around 90%
• Alunorte estimated to reach nameplate capacity by year end

Primary Metal

• ~ 62% of primary production for Q4 priced at USD 1,750 per mt
• ~ 53% of premiums affecting Q3 booked at USD ~260 per mt
• Q4 realized premium expected in the range of USD 175-225 per mt
• Higher fixed costs on top of seasonality, including Husnes ramp-up cost

Metal Markets

• Recycling facilities largely back to normal operations 

• Volatile trading and currency effects

Rolled Products

• Continued market recovery, uncertainty remains
• Anti-dumping duties of around NOK 200 million
• Higher maintenance and other costs

Extruded Solutions

• Continued market recovery, uncertainty remains

Energy

• Volume and price uncertainty, high reservoir levels
• Average NO2 spot price ~145 NOK/MWh in October

Additional information

The latest available price and currency sensitivities for earnings (as well as information on the price time lags for revenues and costs), are included in the Q3 Investor presentation.

Publicly available information regarding the market prices and currency developments in Q4:

  • The average LME-cash market rate in Q4 was 1,916 USD vs USD 1,704 in Q3. Realized price in PM lags LME spot with 1-2 months
  • The average spot PAX alumina price in Q4 was USD 282 vs USD 274 in Q3. Alumina prices in B&A are realized with ca one month lag, in PM with 2-3 months lag
  • The average USD/NOK market rate in Q4 was 9.03 vs 9.13 in Q3
  • The average USD/BRL market rate in Q4 was 5.40 vs 5.37 in Q3
  • The Nordpool power price for NO2 (where Hydro has ~2/3 of the production) in Q4 was NOK/MWh 136 vs 52 NOK/MWh in Q3
  • The Nordpool power price for NO5 (where Hydro has ~1/3 of the production) in Q4 was NOK/MWh 132 vs 50 NOK/MWh in Q3
  • The Nordpool power price for NO3 in Q4 was 112 NOK/MWh vs 67 NOK/MWh in Q3