Skip to content

Quarterly guiding

Ahead of the quarterly results release, we remind you of the relevant publicly available information and guidance for the next quarter.

Business area outlook for Q1 2020 as provided in the Q4 2019 presentation:

Bauxite & Alumina

  • Alunorte expected to produce at ~90-95% of nameplate capacity

Primary Metal

  • ~ 50% of primary production for Q1 priced at USD ~1 750 per mt 3)
  • ~ 55% of premiums affecting Q1 booked at USD ~260 per mt 3)
  • - Q1 realized premium expected in the range of USD 200-250 per mt
  • Raw material costs trending downwards
  • Slovalco partially curtailed

Metal Markets

  • Softening market conditions for remelters
  • Volatile trading and currency effects

Rolled Products

  • Continued market demand weakness
  • Neuss results driven by all-in metal and raw material price development 

Extruded Solutions

  • Declining market demand in Europe and North America
  • Q1 19 affected by the cyber attack

Energy

  • Volume and price uncertainty

Additional information

  • The latest available price and currency sensitivities for earnings (as well as information on the price time lags for revenues and costs), are included in the Q4 Investor presentation

Publicly available information regarding the market prices and currency developments in Q4:

  • The average LME-cash market rate in Q1 was USD 1688 vs USD 1754 in Q4. Realized price in PM lags LME spot with 1-2 months
  • The average spot PAX alumina price in Q1 was USD 284 vs USD 280 in Q4. Alumina prices in B&A are realized with ca one month lag, in PM with 2-3 months lag
  • The average USD/NOK market rate in Q1 was 9,49 vs 9.11 in Q4
  • The average USD/BRL market rate in Q1 was 4.47 vs 4.12 in Q4
  • The Nordpool power price for NO2 (where Hydro has ~2/3 of the production) in Q1 was NOK/MWh 154 vs 394 NOK/MWh in Q4 
  • The Nordpool power price for NO5 (where Hydro has ~1/3 of the production) in Q1 was NOK/MWh 154 vs 394 NOK/MWh in Q1
  • The Nordpool power price for NO3 in Q1 was 158 NOK/MWh vs 382 NOK/MWh in Q4

We kindly remind you about our two-week silent period prior to the announcement date, starting on April 15.